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 We Can't Keep Eating Like This 
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Post We Can't Keep Eating Like This
http://www.monbiot.com/2017/12/13/we-ca ... like-this/

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This is the question everyone should be attending to – where is the food going to come from?


By George Monbiot, published in the Guardian 11th December 2017



Brexit; the crushing of democracy by billionaires; the next financial crash; a rogue US president: none of them keeps me awake at night. This is not because I don’t care – I care very much. It’s only because I have a bigger question on my mind. Where is the food going to come from?

By mid-century there will be two or three billion more people on Earth. Any one of the issues I am about to list could help precipitate mass starvation. And this is before you consider how they might interact.

The trouble begins where everything begins: with soil. The UN’s famous projection that, at current rates of soil loss, the world has 60 years of harvests left, appears to be supported by a new set of figures. Partly as a result of soil degradation, yields are already declining on 20% of the world’s croplands.

Now consider water loss. In places such as the North China Plain, the central United States, California and north-western India – among the world’s critical growing regions – levels of the groundwater used to irrigate crops are already reaching crisis point. Water in the Upper Ganges aquifer, for example, is being withdrawn at 50 times its recharge rate. But, to keep pace with food demand, farmers in South Asia expect to use between 80 and 200% more water by 2050. Where will it come from?

The next constraint is temperature. One study suggests that, all else being equal, with each degree Celsius of warming the global yield of rice drops by 3%, wheat by 6% and maize by 7%. This could be optimistic. Research published in the journal Agricultural & Environmental Letters finds that 4°C of warming in the US Corn Belt could reduce maize yields by between 84 and 100%.

The reason is that high temperatures at night disrupt the pollination process. But this describes just one component of the likely pollination crisis. Insectageddon, caused by the global deployment of scarcely-tested pesticides, will account for the rest. Already, in some parts of the world, workers are now pollinating plants by hand. But that’s viable only for the most expensive crops.

Then there are the structural factors. Because they tend to use more labour, grow a wider range of crops and work the land more carefully, small farmers, as a rule, grow more food per hectare than large ones. In the poorer regions of the world, people with less than 5 hectares own 30% of the farmland but produce 70% of the food. Since 2000, an area of fertile ground roughly twice the size of the United Kingdom has been seized by land grabbers and consolidated into large farms, generally growing crops for export rather than the food needed by the poor.

While these multiple disasters unfold on land, the seas are being sieved of everything but plastic. Despite a massive increase in effort (bigger boats, bigger engines, more gear), the worldwide fish catch is declining by roughly 1% a year, as populations collapse. The global land grab is mirrored by a global seagrab: small fishers are displaced by big corporations, exporting fish to those who need it less but pay more. Around 3 billion people depend to a large extent on fish and shellfish protein. Where will it come from?

All this would be hard enough. But as people’s incomes increase, their diet tends to shift from plant protein to animal protein. World meat production has quadrupled in 50 years, but global average consumption is still only half that of the UK – where we eat roughly our bodyweight in meat every year – and just over a third of the US level. Because of the way we eat, the UK’s farmland footprint (the land required to meet our demand) is 2.4 times the size of its agricultural area. If everyone aspires to this diet, how do we accommodate it?

The profligacy of livestock farming is astonishing. Already, 36% of the calories grown in the form of grain and pulses – and 53% of the protein – are used to feed farm animals. Two-thirds of this food is lost in conversion from plant to animal. A graph produced last week by Our World in Data suggests that, on average, you need 0.01m2 of land to produce a gram of protein from beans or peas, but 1m2 to produce it from beef cattle or sheep: a difference of 100-fold.

It’s true that much of the grazing land occupied by cattle and sheep cannot be used to grow crops. But it would otherwise have sustained wildlife and ecosystems. Instead, marshes are drained, trees are felled and their seedlings grazed out, predators are exterminated, wild herbivores fenced out and other lifeforms gradually erased as grazing systems intensify. Astonishing places – such as the rainforests of Madagascar and Brazil – are laid waste to make room for yet more cattle.

Because there is not enough land to meet both need and greed, a global transition to eating animals means snatching food from the mouths of the poor. It also means the ecological cleansing of almost every corner of the planet.

The shift in diets would be impossible to sustain even if there were no growth in the human population. But the greater the number of people, the greater the hunger meat eating will cause. From a baseline of 2010, the UN expects meat consumption to rise by 70% by 2030 (this is three times the rate of human population growth). Partly as a result, the global demand for crops could double (from the 2005 baseline) by 2050. The land required to grow them does not exist.

When I say this keeps me up at night, I mean it. I am plagued by visions of starving people seeking to escape from grey wastes, being beaten back by armed police. I see the last rich ecosystems snuffed out, the last of the global megafauna – lions, elephants, whales and tuna – vanishing. And when I wake, I cannot assure myself that it was just a nightmare.

Other people have different dreams: the fantasy of a feeding frenzy that need never end, the fairytale of reconciling continued economic growth with a living world. If humankind spirals into societal collapse, these dreams will be the cause.

There are no easy answers, but the crucial change is a shift from an animal to a plant-based diet. All else being equal, stopping both meat production and the use of farmland to grow biofuels could provide enough calories for another 4 billion people and double the protein available for human consumption. Artificial meat will help: one paper suggests it reduces water use by at least 82% and land use by 99%.

The next Green Revolution will not be like the last one. It will rely not on flogging the land to death, but on reconsidering how we use it and why. Can we do this, or do we – the richer people now consuming the living planet – find mass death easier to contemplate than changing our diet?

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21 Dec 2017, 17:36
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Post Re: We Can't Keep Eating Like This
In other words, the world is finite - and humans are breeding to the point of crashing the whole system.

Nobody wants to talk about population control. It's too icky. In this sense, I reject ideas that divert people away from the core problem - like the phony "ethics" of vegan-ism.

None of that will change the fact that the human population is 6 times bigger now than it was 150 years ago, and no matter what false & desperate "innovations" might be proposed on the food front, the earth is way beyond capacity already.

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27 Dec 2017, 15:52
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Post Re: We Can't Keep Eating Like This
Consider cannibalism.

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27 Dec 2017, 19:34
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Post Re: We Can't Keep Eating Like This
verbalsniper wrote:
In other words, the world is finite - and humans are breeding to the point of crashing the whole system.

Nobody wants to talk about population control. It's too icky. In this sense, I reject ideas that divert people away from the core problem - like the phony "ethics" of vegan-ism.


This.
Water, and not oil, will be the resource our children (and/or grandchildren) wage war over in the years to come.


27 Dec 2017, 21:51
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Post Re: We Can't Keep Eating Like This
Our sun will die off eventually.


27 Dec 2017, 22:09
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Post Re: We Can't Keep Eating Like This
Exorcist wrote:
Consider cannibalism.



Been considered, for years now.


Let's just say if faced with a choice between eating people or going vegan, you don't want to get stranded on a deserted island with me.


Image

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28 Dec 2017, 01:58
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Post Re: We Can't Keep Eating Like This
verbalsniper wrote:
In other words, the world is finite - and humans are breeding to the point of crashing the whole system.

Nobody wants to talk about population control. It's too icky. In this sense, I reject ideas that divert people away from the core problem - like the phony "ethics" of vegan-ism.

None of that will change the fact that the human population is 6 times bigger now than it was 150 years ago, and no matter what false & desperate "innovations" might be proposed on the food front, the earth is way beyond capacity already.


If you can name a successful population control programme, I'm all ears. Until then, veganism, as annoying as it is, is a FAR more workable solution.

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28 Dec 2017, 12:27
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Post Re: We Can't Keep Eating Like This
commie.

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28 Dec 2017, 12:29
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Post Re: We Can't Keep Eating Like This
verbalsniper wrote:
Exorcist wrote:
Consider cannibalism.



Been considered, for years now.


Let's just say if faced with a choice between eating people or going vegan, you don't want to get stranded on a deserted island with me.


Image


I'm talking about farms and everything.

Being the farmer and looking after the little meat-sacks would be a pretty miserable job, but planting season would be awesome.

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28 Dec 2017, 14:02
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Post Re: We Can't Keep Eating Like This
ARSEFACE. wrote:
verbalsniper wrote:
In other words, the world is finite - and humans are breeding to the point of crashing the whole system.

Nobody wants to talk about population control. It's too icky. In this sense, I reject ideas that divert people away from the core problem - like the phony "ethics" of vegan-ism.

None of that will change the fact that the human population is 6 times bigger now than it was 150 years ago, and no matter what false & desperate "innovations" might be proposed on the food front, the earth is way beyond capacity already.


If you can name a successful population control programme, I'm all ears. Until then, veganism, as annoying as it is, is a FAR more workable solution.



China's one-child policy was flawed, but effective at solving a lot of China's problems. I doubt they would be a superpower with a rising economy today if they had not done it. They had

The flaw was because it didn't do enough to the traditonal preference for sons, and created an imbalance in gender.

But I always thought the "human rights" criticisms were bunk. There are still nations that view population as a contest - look at India. They still do, and the environmental damage they do is immense, despite the fact they are one of the most vegetarian countries on Earth.

And frankly, with every economist and tech expert pointing to the imminent replacement of most human labour by automation and AI, the arguments that tie economic power to population growth should be discarded. Quality of life matters, not quantity of humans.

Birth rates tend to decrease due to modernity of lifestyle, but only after a society undergoes period of explosive growth. Much of the world is still in that phase, and it needs to be blunted by proactive measures, or any passive reductions will come far too late to save the world from ecosystem collapse.

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28 Dec 2017, 14:52
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Post Re: We Can't Keep Eating Like This
The only systematic review on record of the OCP found that there was a steep drop in fertility that began in the late 70s, before the policy came into place. It also found that counties that were lax in enforcing the policy have lower than average population growth rates. Meanwhile, the sex ratio has led to fewer marriages, and therefore fewer new families, and an aging population with not enough people to care for them.

Quote:
look at India. They still do, and the environmental damage they do is immense, despite the fact they are one of the most vegetarian countries on Earth.


Between 60 and 70% of India's population, ie, up to 90 million people, are not vegetarian. It's also one of the largest producers of beef in the world.

Quote:
with every economist and tech expert pointing to the imminent replacement of most human labour by automation and AI,


It's really not that imminent. I work in process automation, it's still a really steep climb. ML is severely limited by available computing power. When GPGPU gets much cheaper (more energy efficient) and understanding of parallelism becomes much more mainstream among developers, it will be a much more looming threat.

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28 Dec 2017, 15:44
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Post Re: We Can't Keep Eating Like This
verbalsniper wrote:
But I always thought the "human rights" criticisms were bunk.

What makes you say that? I know you mentioned India right after this but you're talking about China, right?

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29 Dec 2017, 08:40
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Post Re: We Can't Keep Eating Like This
Here's what I think might be the best documentary on how our food is actually made right now.

Unser täglich Brot AKA Our Daily Bread [2005] by Nikolaus Geyrhalter

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DXAVnE-DQn8

There is no narration, no music. Just a camera filming the production of food in Europe.

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29 Dec 2017, 09:04
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